|
September 3, 2009: "Validity of climate change forecasting for public policy decision making", a paper to be published in International Journal of Forecasting. by ICSC Advisors, Dr. Kesten C. Green of the Business and Economic Forecasting Unit at Monash University, Vic 3800, Australia and Professor J. Scott Armstrong, of The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, U.S.A. and Dr. Willie Soon, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A. "Using the IPCC warming rate for our demonstration, we projected the rate successively over a period analogous to that envisaged in their scenario of exponential CO2 growth—the years 1851 to 1975. The errors from the projections were more than seven times greater than the errors from the benchmark method. Relative errors were larger for longer forecast horizons." Read the whole paper. Read today's press release from the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition, "Global warming legislation would fail", that references this paper and includes quotes from the authors. Visit Armstrong and Green's forecasting site. Visit the Science and Public Policy Institute, the organization for which Dr. Soon is Chief Science Adviser.
|